Predicting Changes in and Future Distributions of Plant Habitats of Climate-Sensitive Biological Indicator Species in South Korea

Abstract

Climate change has been progressing rapidly in recent years; consequently, current plant habitats are expected to change. Therefore, to monitor plant movement caused by changed habitat environments, certain plants are designated as bioindicators and managed accordingly. Monitoring changes in plant habitats is important for protecting vulnerable plant species and establishing suitable measures for vegetation environments with suitable plant species under future climates. As part of this task, South Korea manages climate-sensitive plant species for each biological classification group, including plants. Accordingly, in this study, possible current habitats were identified and future habitats were predicted for nine climate-sensitive species in South Korea under climate change scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) using a species distribution model (SDM) and based on national data acquired through field surveys. The MaxEnt algorithm, with high accuracy, was used for the SDM analysis. The MaxEnt algorithm is a powerful tool that analyzes the effects of environmental variables based on occurrence data and indicates possible habitats. To obtain precise results, environmental variables were utilized by collecting comprehensive climatic and topographic data for South Korea. Based on a current habitat analysis, the model accuracy of nine species yielded a high value of more than 0.9, on average, which indicates the extremely high performance of the model. Under climate change scenarios, evergreen coniferous and deciduous broadleaf plant habitats were predicted to expand inland and to the north of South Korea. The results of this study provide valuable data for establishing future conservation and management strategies for climate-sensitive plant species in South Korea. In addition, the detailed environment variable construction method and SDM analysis method used in this study could be applied to the analysis of changes in comprehensive plant habitats caused by climate change in other countries.