A Novel Short-Term Ship Motion Prediction Algorithm Based on EMD and Adaptive PSO–LSTM with the Sliding Window Approach

Abstract

Under the influence of variable sea conditions, a ship will have an oscillating motion comprising six degrees of freedom, all of which are connected to each other. Among these degrees of freedom, rolling and pitching motions have a severe impact on a ship’s maritime operations. An accurate and effective ship motion attitude prediction method that makes the prediction in a short period of time is required to guarantee the safety and stability of the ship’s maritime operations. Traditional methods are based on time domain analysis, such as the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models. However, these models have limitations when it comes to predicting the nonlinear and nonstationary characteristics of real ship motion attitude data. Many intelligent algorithms continue to be applied in nonlinear and nonstationary ship attitude prediction, such as extreme learning machines (ELMs) and the long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, as well as other deep learning methods, showing promising results. By using the sliding window approach, the time-varying dynamic characteristics of the ship’s motion attitude can be preserved better. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed model performs well in terms of predicting the nonlinear and nonstationary ship motion attitude.