Technical and Economic Analysis of Modernization of Solar Power Plant: A Case Study from the Republic of Cuba

Abstract

The problem of increasing the efficiency of existing power plants is relevant for many countries. Solar power plants built at the end of the 20th century require, as their shelf lives have now expired, not only the replacement of the solar modules, but also the modernization of their component composition. This is due to the requirements to improve the efficiency of power plants to ensure the expansion of renewable energy technologies. This article presents a technical and economic analysis of the choice of solar power plant modernization method, which consists of (1) a method for calculating the amount of power generation; (2) the modeling of solar power plants under specific climatic conditions; (3) the analysis of electricity generation using different types of PV modules and solar radiation trapping technologies in Matlab/Simulink; and (4) the technical and economic analysis of a 2.5 MW solar power plant in the Republic of Cuba (in operation since 2015), for which four different modernization options were considered. All the scenarios differ in the depth of modernization; the results of the analysis were compared with the existing plant. The results of the study showed that the different modernization scenarios respond differently to changes in the inputted technical and economic parameters (cost per kWh, inflation rate, losses, and power plant efficiency). The maximum NPV deviations among the considered scenarios are: a 1% increase in inflation reduces NPV by 2%; a decrease in losses from 20% to 10% increases the NPV by 2.5%; a change in cost from EUR 0.05 to EUR 0.1 increases the NPV by more than 3.5 times. The dependence of the economic results was also tested as a function of three factors: solar module efficiency, inflation, and the price per 1 kWh. It was found that the greatest influence on the NPV of the proposed model is the price per 1 kWh. Based on this analysis, an algorithm was developed to choose the most effective scenario for the conditions of the Republic of Cuba for the modernization of the existing power plants.