Sustainability Assessment Model of the Buriganga River Restoration Project in Bangladesh: A System Dynamics and Inclusive Wealth Study

Abstract

The Bangladesh government initiated the Buriganga River Restoration Project in 2010 to clean the heavily polluted Turag-Buriganga River. This study assessed the dynamic impact of the project on intergenerational well-being and developing a sustainable river system. The project outcomes were modeled for three future scenarios—varying waste control, streamflow, and migration control levels. System dynamics modeling—based on Streeter-Phelps’ water quality model and inclusive wealth (IW) index—was applied to secondary data (including remotely sensed data). The simulation model indicated that the project (with increasing streamflow up to 160 m3/s) will not ensure sustainability because dissolved oxygen (DO) is meaningfully decreasing, biological oxygen demand (BOD) is increasing, and IW is declining over time. However, sustainability can be achieved in scenario 3, an integrated strategy (streamflow: 160 m3/s, waste control: 87.78% and migration control: 6%) that will ensure DO of 8.3 mg/L, BOD of 3.1 mg/L, and IW of 57.5 billion USD in 2041, which is equivalent to 2.22% cumulative gross domestic product by 2041. This study is the first to use combined modeling to assess the dynamic impacts of a river restoration project. The findings can help policymakers to achieve sustainability and determine the optimal strategy for restoring polluted rivers.