Forest Fire Assessment Using Remote Sensing to Support the Development of an Action Plan Proposal in Ecuador

Abstract

Worldwide, forest fires exert effects on natural ecosystems, contributing to economic/human losses, health effects, and climate change. Spectral indices are an essential tool for monitoring and analyzing forest fires. These indices make it possible to evaluate the affected areas and help mitigate possible future events and reduce damage. The case study addressed in this work corresponds to the Cerro of the Guadual community of La Carolina parish (Ibarra, Ecuador). This work aims to evaluate the degree of severity and the recovery of post-fire vegetation, employing the multitemporal analysis of spectral indices and correlating these with the climatological aspects of the region. The methodological process was based on (i) background information collection, (ii) remote sensing data, (iii) spectral index analysis, (iv) multivariate analysis, and (v) a forest fire action plan proposal. Landsat-8 OLI satellite images were used for multitemporal analysis (2014–2020). Using the dNDVI index, the fire’s severity was classified as unburned and very low severity in regard to the areas that did not regenerate post-fire, which represented 10,484.64 ha. In contrast, the areas classified as high and very high severity represented 5859.06 ha and 2966.98 ha, respectively. In addition, the dNBR was used to map the burned areas. The high enhanced regrowth zones represented an area of 8017.67 ha, whereas the moderate/high-severity to high-severity zones represented 3083.72 ha and 1233.49 ha, respectively. The areas with a high severity level corresponded to native forests, which are challenging to recover after fires. These fire severity models were validated with 31 in situ data from fire-starting points and they presented an accuracy of 99.1% in the high severity category. In addition, through the application of principal component analysis (PCA) with data from four meteorological stations in the region, a bimodal behavior was identified corresponding to the climatology of the area (dry season and rainy season), which is related to the presence of fires (in the dry season). It is essential to note that after the 2014 fire, locally, rainfall decreased and temperatures increased. Finally, the proposed action plan for forest fires made it possible to define a safe and effective evacuation route to reduce the number of victims during future events.