Estimation of Human Casualties Due to Earthquakes: Overview and Application of Literature Models with Emphasis on Occupancy Rate

Abstract

In the field of seismic risk assessment, the estimation of human casualties is an important task for medical and relief agencies to develop preparedness and emergency management actions. The process of calculating casualties involves several factors along with the associated uncertainties. Despite its complexity and the limited quality and availability of data, many studies have been devoted to this topic in recent decades, but additional effort is required to better analyze these studies by also comparing the results they provide. In the present paper, an extensive literature overview of the main models proposed to estimate casualties is reported. Further, the main factors involved in the available Casualty Estimation Models are also analyzed by analyzing loss scenarios related to two strong Italian earthquakes (1980 Irpinia–Basilicata and 2009 L’Aquila). Comparing estimated vs. collected data, it is found that, in addition to the damage level, both the building material and the occupancy rate at the time of the event significantly impact the estimation of human casualties. As for the occupancy rate, based on the data on the daily life of citizens collected by the Italian Institute of Statistics, the occupancy rate functions for Italian residential building stock are derived and discussed.