Enhancing Visitor Forecasting with Target-Concatenated Autoencoder and Ensemble Learning

Abstract

Accurate forecasting of inbound visitor numbers is crucial for effective planning and resource allocation in the tourism industry. Preceding forecasting algorithms primarily focused on time series analysis, often overlooking influential factors such as economic conditions. Regression models, on the other hand, face challenges when dealing with high-dimensional data. Previous autoencoders for feature selection do not simultaneously incorporate feature and target information simultaneously, potentially limiting their effectiveness in improving predictive performance. This study presents a novel approach that combines a target-concatenated autoencoder (TCA) with ensemble learning to enhance the accuracy of tourism demand predictions. The TCA method integrates the prediction target into the training process, ensuring that the learned feature representations are optimized for specific forecasting tasks. Extensive experiments conducted on the Taiwan and Hawaii datasets demonstrate that the proposed TCA method significantly outperforms traditional feature selection techniques and other advanced algorithms in terms of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute error (MAE), and coefficient of determination (R2). The results show that TCA combined with XGBoost achieves MAPE values of 3.3947% and 4.0059% for the Taiwan and Hawaii datasets, respectively, indicating substantial improvements over existing methods. Additionally, the proposed approach yields better R2 and MAE metrics than existing methods, further demonstrating its effectiveness. This study highlights the potential of TCA in providing reliable and accurate forecasts, thereby supporting strategic planning, infrastructure development, and sustainable growth in the tourism sector. Future research is advised to explore real-time data integration, expanded feature sets, and hybrid modeling approaches to further enhance the capabilities of the proposed framework.