The Risk Factors for Progression to Chronic Pancreatitis in Patients with Past-History of Acute Pancreatitis: A Retrospective Analysis Based on Mechanistic Definition

Abstract

Background: According to the mechanistic definition, the history of acute pancreatitis (AP) is a risk factor for chronic pancreatitis (CP). However, the etiology and severity of previous AP involved in the progression to CP have not been clarified. Here, we investigated risk factors for the progression to CP in patients with past-history of AP. Methods: Sixty-four patients with AP who were followed-up for at least two years at our institution between April 2009 and March 2017 were enrolled. The multivariate analysis was performed based on the risk factors extracted by univariate analysis. Results: Among the 64 patients, 13 patients (20.3%) progressed to CP (PCP group), while 48 did not (non-PCP group). Regarding the etiology of AP, rate of alcohol AP was significantly higher in the PCP group (76.9% vs. 33.3%, p = 0.003). In univariate analysis, smoking, number of previous AP, and alcohol consumption and drinking habits (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-Concise; AUDIT-C) were identified as factors associated with progression to CP. Furthermore, multivariate analysis showed that AUDIT-C ≥ 6 points (male) and 4 points (female) after AP was a significant risk factor for CP (p = 0.003). Conclusions: Our results indicated that AUDIT-C ≥ 6 points (male) and 4 points (female) after AP was a risk factor in the process of progression to CP in patients with past-history of AP.