Predictability of Cardiovascular Risk Scores for Carotid Atherosclerosis in Community-Dwelling Middle-Aged and Elderly Adults

Abstract

Background: The assessment of future risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is strongly recommended for all asymptomatic adults without CVD history. Carotid atherosclerosis (CA) is a preclinical phenotype of CVDs. However, data on estimated future CVD risks with respect to preclinical atherosclerosis are limited. This community-based study aimed to assess the relationships between predicted CVD risks and CA. Methods: We enrolled 3908 subjects aged 40–74 years without CVD history and calculated their 10-year CVD risks using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) and the Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE). Carotid plaque (CP) at the extracranial carotid arteries was determined by high-resolution B-mode ultrasonography and further classified into mild or advanced CA. Results: The means of FRS for CP-negative and mild and advanced CA were 9.0%, 14.4%, and 22.1%, respectively (p-value < 0.0001). The corresponding values for PCE score were 4.8%, 8.8%, and 15.0%, respectively (p-value < 0.0001). The odds ratios (ORs) of having CP per 5.0% increase in FRS and PCE score were 1.23 (95% CI, 1.19–1.28) and 1.36 (95% CI, 1.28–1.44), respectively. The corresponding values of having advanced CA were 1.24 (95% CI, 1.19–1.29) and 1.38 (95% CI, 1.30–1.48), respectively. Among the models of FRS or PCE plus other conventional CVD risk factors, the FRS + age model had the highest discrimination for the presence of CP (AUROC, 0.7533; 95% CI, 0.7375–0.7691) as well as for the presence of advanced CA (AUROC, 0.8034; 95% CI, 0.7835–0.8232). The calibration of the FRS + age models for the presences of CP and advanced CA was excellent (χ2 = 8.45 [p = 0.49] and 10.49 [p = 0.31], respectively). Conclusions: Estimated future CVD risks were significantly correlated with risks of having CA. Both FRS and PCE had good discrimination for the presences of CP and advanced CA.