Complex-Systems Analysis of the CSI 300 Index: Evolution, Resilience, and Prediction in Stock Correlation Network

Abstract

With the outbreak and evolution of the pandemic worldwide, the financial market has experienced unprecedented shocks and adjustments, and the volatility and correlation of the stock market, as an important indicator of economic activities, have shown new features and trends during the pandemic. Based on the CSI 300 Index, we construct a three-stage sequential network representing the pre-pandemic, pandemic, and post-relaxation phases. We investigate the evolving dynamics and resilience of the network, forecasting potential future connections, thus offering fresh insights into comprehending market recovery. Our findings unveil that the market adapts dynamically to the pandemic’s progression, witnessing an overall augmentation in network interconnectedness. While the financial sector maintains its pivotal role, the influence of non-financial sectors experiences an upsurge. Despite the network demonstrating poor stability and heavy reliance on key nodes, there exists a positive recovery trajectory. Non-financial sectors such as energy and transportation emerge as pivotal catalysts for market rejuvenation. We provide suggestions for government regulators and investors, providing strong support for optimizing the market structure and promoting the long-term healthy development of the market.