Urban Development Scenario Simulation and Model Research Based on System Dynamics from the Perspective of Effect and Efficiency

Abstract

The accurate handling of the relationships between economy, society, and environment in urban development is an important vision and goal of urban construction. Taking Xi’an as an example, this study established an urban development system dynamics model, including three subsystems (economy, society, and environment), to propose eight different development plans, and data from 2021 to 2025 were simulated in each plan. Finally, based on the simulation data, the entropy weight method and the Epsilon-based measure (EBM) model in data envelopment analysis (DEA) were used to measure the effect and efficiency of development in the city, respectively. The results showed that, in terms of effect, the comprehensive development plan (P8) had the highest score, which was 66.88% higher than the original plan. The plan scores of the double subsystem upgrading plans were higher than those of the single subsystem upgrading plans, indicating that comprehensive development can promote the coordination between subsystems and improve the development level. In terms of efficiency, the environmental (P4), economic–social (P5), economic–environmental (P6), social–environmental (P7), and comprehensive development (P8) plans were all effective according to DEA in each year, with P8 having the highest efficiency score, 1.1129. Therefore, considering the effect and efficiency comprehensively, P8 was considered the optimal plan. This study provides a method for exploring the relationship between variables in the process of urban development and is of great significance for defining an optimal plan.