An Analysis Method of System Coupling and Spatio-Temporal Evolution of County New Urbanization and Logistics Industry

Abstract

New urbanization in counties and the logistics industry are closely related and are essential in promoting regional economic and social development. There are specific challenges and obstacles to revealing the interaction mechanism and system state measurement between the two. This paper explains the two coupling mechanisms and constructs the evaluation index system. It proposes a new analysis method based on the coupling coordination degree model, the spatio-temporal evolution analysis, and the grey prediction model. The goal is to learn more about and fully realize the coordinated development mechanisms of the two. It then uses the Hebei province of China as an example to empirically analyze its systematic cross-sectional data from 2013 to 2022. Research findings: (1) In Hebei province, the new urbanization in counties and the logistics industry have a systematic coupling relationship. However, the logistics industry’s comprehensive development level is relatively lagging. The two systems have been at a high-level coupling stage for the last decade and maintain a high coupling status. The coupling coordination has shown significant improvement. (2) Although the geographical distribution of the coupling and coordination degree of the new urbanization in counties and logistics industry system has short-term volatility, it is still stable in the long term and presents economic-related spatial characteristics. (3) Over the next five years, the coupling coordination of 11 cities in Hebei province will steadily grow. There will be greater harmonization between the two systems. (4) From the analysis results, the evaluation index system of the coupled system constructed is scientific and reasonable. The analysis method can not only measure the system’s coupling degree, but it can also predict the development trend and analyze the spatial evolution. The technique has novelty and validity, which can be used as a reference for analyzing and making decisions about similar systems.