Postal Digital Transformation Dynamics—A System Dynamics Approach

Abstract

The key motivation of the study was to explore and enlarge our understanding of the factors that inhibit and drive the performance of the postal sector in a dynamic setting in the context of Southern Africa. This study was prompted by the unsatisfactory performance of the postal sector in Southern Africa as measured by the Integrated Index on Postal Development (2IPD), an index used by the Universal Postal Union to measure the performance of posts across the globe on dimensions of reliability, resilience, reach, and relevance. Postal operators across the world are faced with inescapable business model disruptions steered by the digital era, and Southern Africa is not an exception. System dynamics was adopted as a modelling approach to simulate the interaction of the stocks (digital culture, operations capability, adoption, and financial performance). The system dynamics approach revealed that the postal sector can be described as a complex phenomenon due to intricate interdependent variables that interact in a dynamic setting. The complex nature of the postal sector is further amplified by multiple feedback systems of non-linear relations. The results of the study point to the complex interaction of these variables that inhibit and drive the digital transformation and competitiveness of the postal sector. It is by grasping these complexities that decision-makers and policymakers can exploit the insights revealed by this research to direct the postal sector toward a sustainable future.