A Study on the Risk Assessment of Water Conservancy Scenic Spot PPP Projects

Abstract

The water conservancy scenic spot is an important part of China’s water ecological civilization construction and is an important way to transform “clear water and green mountains” into “mountains of gold and silver”. The current development of the water conservancy scenic spot is limited by the conditions of capital, management, and technology. The PPP model, as a means of introducing these elements, is an effective way to realize the marketization, characterization, and high-quality development of water conservancy scenic spots. Due to the particularity and complexity of water conservancy scenic spots, the PPP model, and their combination, the risks in water conservancy scenic spot PPP projects are more complicated. Identification and assessment, as well as response, are necessary ways to reduce project risks. In this paper, the risk evaluation index system and the DEMATEL-ANP-FUZZY risk evaluation model of the water conservancy scenic spot PPP project are put forward and, then, the key risk factors, causal relationship between the factors, and risk level of the project are obtained in combination with case analysis. The results show that risks in construction and operation, as well as political and economic risks, are the key risk factors in the water conservancy scenic spot PPP project, and the natural, economic and political risk factors are the main causes of project risk. Risks in construction and operation, as well as organizational and social risks, are the main affected factors. Further analysis shows that the political and economic factors are the key points to focus on when attempting to reduce the project risk, and suggestions are provided, such as improving the legal and regulatory framework, establishing a reasonable risk-sharing and social capital withdrawal mechanism, unblocking social capital participation channels, and strengthening financial support. This could provide a reference for the risk management of water conservancy scenic spot PPP projects.