The Impact of Political Instability, Food Prices, and Crime Rate on Tourism: A Way toward Sustainable Tourism in Pakistan

Abstract

This study aims to examine the impact of political instability, food prices, and the crime rate on tourism development in Pakistan over the semi-annual data from 1995 to 2019. To achieve the goal of this study, an asymmetric ARDL technique was used. The Asymmetric Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) aided in gaining access to both positive and negative shocks in political stability, crime rate, and food inflation. The findings showed that due to positive variations in the political conditions, tourism will increase by 0.12%, and if political instability prevails in the country, tourism will decrease by 23%. On the other hand, the magnitude of political stability is less than the negative variation of political instability on tourism. The study concludes that there is a considerable asymmetric association between political instability, crime rate, food prices, and tourism development in Pakistan. Based on these findings, it is advised that the government adopt proactive measures to establish and reinforce the political stability mechanism and terrorism control, as well as to improve the living standards of the general population. Moreover, establish a structure for adaptation efforts, focusing on the coordination of tourism expansion platforms for sustainable tourism in Pakistan to attract more foreigners for the sake of a surge in tourism proceeds.