Environmental Risk Assessment in the Hindu Kush Himalayan Mountains of Northern Pakistan: Palas Valley, Kohistan

Abstract

Forest cover in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) mountains of northern Pakistan has changed dramatically due to community dynamics such as population growth, household dynamics, and intensive economic activity for people’s livelihoods. Demographic development is one of the major factors influencing forest cover change in a previously sparsely populated environment. An abrupt upsurge in population exerts adverse effects on the local natural resources, specifically forests. The present research shows an increase in population from 1980 to 2017, the development of human settlements, and a long-term decline in forest cover. This study was conducted in the Palas valley in the HKH mountains using GIS and remote sensing (RS) technology. Analysis of the changes between 1980, 2000, and 2017 was done using ArcGIS and the maximum likelihood algorithm for supervised classification of Landsat MSS TM ETM+ and Sentinel 2A satellite images. We used Euclidean distances and buffer analysis techniques to identify that most changes occurred within 1 to 3 km of the settlement’s proximity in each period. We also found changes in forest cover to be much greater near settlements than elsewhere in the study area. According to the findings of the study, population explosion and other socio-economic factors have imposed excessive pressure on vegetation cover, resulting in the loss of 17,076 ha of forests in the remote Palas valley.