The Economic Resilience Cycle Evolution and Spatial-Temporal Difference of Tourism Industry in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from 2000 to 2019

Abstract

Based on the tourism industry economic panel data, this research divides and measures the tourism industry’s economic resilience cycle in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) by constructing a counterfactual function and exploring the evolution of its Spatial-Temporal difference characteristics in the past 20 years. Estimation results show that three out of the four Recession–Recovery cycles of GBA have been characterized as “creative destruction”. Moreover, the economic resilience values and fluctuation trends of the individual tourism industries in the GBA are quite different. Additionally, the economic resilience of the urban tourism industry has changed from centralized to discrete, and the trend of economic resilience of the tourism industry has changed from low toughness to concentrated. This study expands the practice of resilience theory in the tourism industry economy, and it reveals the difference of tourism industry resilience in the metropolitan area system of GBA urban agglomeration from the perspective of industrial economic resistance and resilience.