Updating the Distributions of Uncertain Parameters Involved in Fatigue Analysis

Abstract

Fatigue is an important failure mode in offshore jacket platforms. To evaluate the fatigue damage, these platforms are periodically inspected during their lifetime. Regarding fatigue damage, the information from inspection consists of crack measurement. A Bayesian framework can be used to update the probability distribution of the crack size. The main purpose of this study is to develop a framework to update the probability distributions of all uncertain parameters involved in the fatigue crack growth analysis. This methodology maximizes the benefit of the inspection results by updating several uncertain parameters involved in the fracture mechanics approach. Two sets of cracks are used to obtain the updated distributions for uncertain parameters; prior cracks and simulated reality cracks. By comparing these cracks, the updated distributions for uncertain parameters are obtained. The updated crack size distribution can be used to update the estimation of the probability of failure. To demonstrate the developed framework, a tubular joint in a specific jacket platform is considered and the framework is applied for that joint. The results of the developed methodology indicate that the updated distributions of uncertain parameters shift towards the simulated reality distributions.