Evaluation of Energy Transition Pathways to Phase out Coal for District Heating in Berlin

Abstract

As Germany struggles to meet its near-term emissions reduction targets in lagging sectors like heating or transport, the need to identify energy transition pathways beyond power generation is urgent. This paper presents an investigation of tangible and climate-friendly transformation paths to replace the existing coal-fired units used for heat and power generation in Berlin with a largely CO2-free innovative technology mix. Although the literature has extensively covered the decarbonization of the power generation sector on different geographic scales, few studies have focused on the decarbonization of the heat sector in cities with large district heating networks, like Berlin. This paper aims to fill this gap. The proposed methodology combines three key elements: (1) scenario analysis including high-fidelity models of the European power market and the heat demand in Berlin, (2) evaluation of energy potential from low-carbon alternative sources, and (3) a techno-economic portfolio optimization. The results suggest that a coal phase-out by 2030 is feasible without any discontinuities in the provision of heat. Although low-carbon sources could partially substitute coal-based heat, they would not be sufficient to replace it completely. Thus, a gas-based hydrogen-ready combined heat and power plant linked with a power-to-heat plant would be required to fill the gap.