The Threshold Effect of China’s Financial Development on Green Total Factor Productivity

Abstract

Using the slacks-based measure (SBM) directional distance function and constructing the Luenberger productivity index, we measure the green total factor productivity (GTFP) of China’s provinces under resource and environmental restrictions. At the same time, based on the provincial panel data, the threshold regression method is used to empirically analyze the impact of financial development on green total factor productivity and its threshold effect. The study explores how technological innovation, foreign direct investment (FDI), and environmental governance affect green total factor productivity, as well as how financial development plays a role in the direction and intensity of the impact, with a view to providing policy recommendations for promoting green economic development. The results show that: (1) during the sample period, China’s green total factor productivity had an overall upward trend, and pure technological progress was the main reason for the growth in the green all-factor growth rate; (2) taking financial development as a threshold dependent variable, financial development had a nonlinear, double-threshold effect on green total factor productivity and diminishing marginal efficiency; (3) the increase in financial development will help attract high-quality and low-pollution FDI inflows, and can exert a technology spillover from FDI to green total factor productivity; (4) the impact of technological innovation on green total factor productivity has a nonlinear feature, with significant positive and increasing marginal efficiency; and (5) there is a positive “U” relationship between environmental governance and green total factor productivity.