Climate Change and Human Activities, the Significant Dynamic Drivers of Himalayan Goral Distribution (Naemorhedus goral)

Author:

Haq Shiekh Marifatul1,Waheed Muhammad2ORCID,Ahmad Riyaz3,Bussmann Rainer W.14ORCID,Arshad Fahim2ORCID,Khan Arshad Mahmood56ORCID,Casini Ryan7,Alataway Abed8,Dewidar Ahmed Z.89,Elansary Hosam O.810ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Ethnobotany, Institute of Botany, Ilia State University, 0162 Tbilisi, Georgia

2. Department of Botany, University of Okara, Okara 56300, Pakistan

3. National Center for Wildlife, Riyadh 11575, Saudi Arabia

4. Department of Botany, Institute of Life Sciences, State Museum of Natural History, 76133 Karlsruhe, Germany

5. Department of Botany, Government Hashmat Ali Islamia Associate College Rawalpindi, Rawalpindi 46300, Pakistan

6. Department of Botany, Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture University Rawalpindi, Rawalpindi 46300, Pakistan

7. School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, 2121 Berkeley Way, Berkeley, CA 94704, USA

8. Prince Sultan Bin Abdulaziz International Prize for Water Chair, Prince Sultan Institute for Environmental, Water and Desert Research, King Saud University, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia

9. Department of Agricultural Engineering, College of Food and Agriculture Sciences, King Saud University, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia

10. Plant Production Department, College of Food & Agriculture Sciences, King Saud University, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia

Abstract

The distribution of large ungulates is more often negatively impacted by the changing climate, especially global warming and species with limited distributional zones. While developing conservation action plans for the threatened species such as the Himalayan goral (Naemorhedus goral Hardwicke 1825; a mountain goat that mostly inhabits rocky cliffs), it is imperative to comprehend how future distributions might vary based on predicted climate change. In this work, MaxEnt modeling was employed to assess the habitat suitability of the target species under varying climate scenarios. Such studies have provided highly useful information but to date no such research work has been conducted that considers this endemic animal species of the Himalayas. A total of 81 species presence points, 19 bioclimatic and 3 topographic variables were employed in the species distribution modeling (SDM), and MaxEnt calibration and optimization were performed to select the best candidate model. For predicted climate scenarios, the future data is drawn from SSPs 245 and SSPs 585 of the 2050s and 2070s. Out of total 20 variables, annual precipitation, elevation, precipitation of driest month, slope aspect, minimum temperature of coldest month, slope, precipitation of warmest quarter, and temperature annual range (in order) were detected as the most influential drivers. A high accuracy value (AUC-ROC > 0.9) was observed for all the predicted scenarios. The habitat suitability of the targeted species might expand (about 3.7 to 13%) under all the future climate change scenarios. The same is evident according to local residents as species which are locally considered extinct in most of the area, might be shifting northwards along the elevation gradient away from human settlements. This study recommends additional research is conducted to prevent potential population collapses, and to identify other possible causes of local extinction events. Our findings will aid in formulating conservation plans for the Himalayan goral in a changing climate and serve as a basis for future monitoring of the species.

Funder

Deanship of Scientific Research, King Saud University

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

General Agricultural and Biological Sciences,General Immunology and Microbiology,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology

Reference72 articles.

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