COVID-19 in Italy: Is the Mortality Analysis a Way to Estimate How the Epidemic Lasts?

Abstract

When an epidemic breaks out, many health, economic, social, and political problems arise that require a prompt and effective solution. It would be useful to obtain all information about the virus, including epidemiological ones, as soon as possible. In a previous study of our group, the analysis of the positive-alive was proposed to estimate the epidemic duration. It was stated that every epidemic ends when the number of positive-alive (=infected-healed-dead) glides toward zero. In fact, if with the contagion everyone can enter the epidemic phenomenon, only by healing or dying can they get out of it. In this work, a different biomathematical model is proposed. A necessary condition for the epidemic to be resolved is that the mortality reaches the asymptotic value, from there, remains stable. At that time, the number of positive-alive must also be close to zero. This model seems to allow us to interpret the entire development of the epidemic and highlight its phases. It is also more appropriate than the previous one, especially when the spread of the infection is so rapid that the increase in live positives is staggering.