Multi-Model Assessing and Visualizing Consistency and Compatibility of Experts in Group Decision-Making

Abstract

In this paper, an approach is proposed for assessing the performance of experts in the group from two perspectives: (1) individual consistencies and (2) deviations from the group decision. The quality of performance of the experts is based on combining the standard and rough analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with the technique for order of preference by similarity to the ideal solution (TOPSIS). The statistical method CRITIC is used to derive weights for the TOPSIS method before the experts are assessed based on demonstrated consistency and deviations from the group. Common performance indicators, such as consistency ratio, Euclidean distance, compatibility, and Spearman’s correlation coefficient, are proposed for re-grouping experts before making the final decisions. A genetic algorithm enables the efficient solving of this complex clustering problem. Implementing the described approach and method can be useful in comparable assessment frameworks. A critical aspect is conducting a thorough pre-assessment of the competence of potential decision makers, often referred to as experts who may not consistently exhibit apparent expertise. The competence of decision makers (which does not have to be associated with compatibility) is evidenced by selected consistency parameters, and in a way, a pre-assessment of their competence follows Plato’s ‘government of the wise’ principle. In the presented study, the compatibility of individuals in the group with the collective position (group decision) is measured by parameters related to their compatibility with the group solution and statistical deviation while ranking decision elements. The proposed multi-model-based approach stands out for its resilience in conducting thorough pre-assessment of the quality (competence) of potential decision makers, often regarded as experts who might not consistently display evident expertise. The wetland study area in Serbia is used as an example application, where seven measures for reducing the risk of drought were evaluated by twelve experts coming from different sectors and with different backgrounds and expertise.