A Reliability Assessment Method for Natural Gas Pipelines with Corroded Defects That Considers Detection Cycles

Abstract

With the development of natural gas pipelines, the proportion of aged pipelines in service has been increasing, and corrosion remains a primary cause of pipeline failure. Regular inspections and reliability assessments are crucial to ensure the safe operation of pipelines. This study investigated an efficient reliability assessment method for corroded pipelines that considers in-line inspection intervals. First, this study compared the commonly used limit state equations for corrosion defects to select one suitable for X80-grade steel pipelines. Additionally, a Tail-Fit Monte Carlo Simulation (TF-MCS) algorithm was proposed to improve the computational speed by 30 times compared to traditional Monte Carlo simulations. Then, this study explored the inspection intervals used for reliability assessments of corroded pipelines. Finally, the parameter sensitivity was analyzed considering the yield strength, maximum operating pressure, and pipe diameter. This study ensures the reliable operation of corroded gas pipelines.