Spatial Scenarios of Land-Use/Cover Change for the Management and Conservation of Paramos and Andean Forests in Boyacá, Colombia

Abstract

The aim of this study was to identify the dynamics of land-use change, the factors associated with these changes, and potential transformations of paramos and Andean forests through the modeling of land-use change scenarios in the department of Boyacá, Colombia. Throughout the classification of satellite images, we assessed land-use change during two time periods: 1998 to 2010 and 2010 to 2018. Seven transition sub-models were analyzed and associated with 36 explanatory variables. Three future scenarios of land-use change were projected for the years 2030 and 2050: trend, agricultural expansion, and conservation scenarios. We found a gradual reduction in paramos and Andean forests with an increase in secondary vegetation. The most relevant variables explaining land-use change were elevation, distance to roads, and distance to protected areas. The scenario with the greatest impact on paramos and Andean forests was agricultural expansion, in which 29% and 41% of forests would be lost by 2030 and 2050 and in which 44% and 59% of paramos would be lost by the same years. Forests and paramos in the central eastern area showed critical losses and highly fragmented distributions in all scenarios; hence, we recommend focusing conservation efforts in these areas.