Modelling Policy Pathways to Maximise Renewable Energy Growth and Investment in the Democratic Republic of the Congo Using OSeMOSYS (Open Source Energy Modelling System)

Abstract

This study sought to generate, evaluate, and recommend possible national policies for the government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to implement to most effectively boost growth and investment in renewable energy technologies (RETs) through 2065 using Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS). The novelty of this study stems in-part from the scarcity of RET modelling completed for specific West African countries rather than for broader regions. Market-based instruments were identified as the policy type most practical for DRC. From modelling the resulting energy systems for policy pathways involving a 16% RET subsidy, a 70% fossil fuel tax, and both in combination relative to no-policy baseline scenarios, the scenarios including the tax had the lowest net costs (USD304–306 B) and the highest proportion of RETs (above 90%). Additionally, despite the current reliance on hydropower to fulfil 98% of its energy needs, hydropower played a very minor role in all of a modelled scenarios (no future investment beyond residual capacity). Finally, a post-modelling market potential assessment was performed on the technology that dominated off-grid supply across policy pathways: a 0.3 kW small solar home system (SHS). Based on learning rates for solar photovoltaics (PV), demand for a small SHS in DRC (>160 million units in total) was found to be sufficient to substantially reduce the unit cost as deployment scales. Ultimately, this study yielded four recommendations for the DRC government: (1) Pursue financial incentives to catalyse DRC’s renewable energy supply. (2) Tax fossil fuel energy production. (3) Re-evaluate focus on hydropower. (4) Promote DRC as a healthy market for solar home systems.