Fuzzy Inference System Development for Turbogenerator Failure Diagnosis on Floating Production Offloading and Storage Platform

Abstract

This paper introduces a novel approach for diagnosing failures within a turbogenerator mineral lube oil system, employing a fuzzy inference system (FIS) model. The study leverages real operational data collected from supervisory monitoring sensors across four turbogenerators over a three-year operational span, resulting in a dataset comprising 40,456,663 input parameters. The failure modes were established through expert knowledge, using the Failure Mode, Effect, and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) documentation as the basis. Initially, the model’s universe variables were constructed using the sensor calibration range, and then the fuzzy membership functions were formulated based on the operational thresholds inherent to each measured parameter. The fault identification mechanism is underpinned by an inference system employing predefined rules, extrapolated from expert judgments encapsulating failure typologies specific to the turbogenerators’ mineral lube oil system, as delineated in the FMECA. The FIS model demonstrates notable efficacy in failure diagnosis with an overall performance evaluation of the system yielding satisfactory outcomes, having a 98.35% true positive rate for failure classification, coupled with a 99.99% true negative rate for accurate classification during normal system operation. These results highlight the visibility of the FIS model in diagnosing failures within the turbogenerator mineral lube oil system, thereby showcasing its potential for enhancing operational reliability and maintenance efficiency.