The Impact of Population Aging on Green Innovation: An Empirical Analysis Based on Inter-Provincial Data in China

Abstract

China’s green innovation and green transformation is facing the uncertain challenge of an aging population. Based on provincial panel data from 2006 to 2019 in 30 provinces of China, this paper uses the threshold regression approach to test the green innovation effect of population aging. The following important conclusions are obtained through empirical analysis. First, population aging has a significant inhibiting effect on green innovation. This inhibition has shown an overall downward trend. Second, the green innovation effect of population aging has the characteristic of regional heterogeneity. The negative impact of population aging on green innovation in the western region shows a “U” shaped distribution with the deepening of population aging. The inflection point value of the “U” shape is 18.1%. The inhibitory effect of population aging on green innovation in the central region is higher than that in the eastern and western regions, with the degree of inhibitory effect reaching over 41%. The inhibitory effect of population aging on green innovation in the eastern region has obvious marginal decreasing characteristics. Third, the moderating mechanisms of different regional conditions are different. The green innovation effect of population aging is positive when the level of urbanization exceeds 70% and trade openness exceeds 1.1547. Green finance is also a positive moderator. However, population aging can negatively affect green innovation through environmental regulation and human capital channels. Thus, China should adopt supporting measures for green innovation market cultivation and green industry development, and enhance its green innovation capabilities through channels such as trade opening, urbanization and green finance.