Simulation of LUCC Scenarios and Analysis of the Driving Force of Carbon Stock Supply Changes in the North China Plain in the Context of Urbanization

Abstract

The North China Plain is the core region of China’s economic development, and exploring the impacts of its land use and cover change (LUCC) and different urbanization regional drivers on carbon stocks is conducive to promoting sustainable development and carbon balance within the region. In the study, the North China Plain was selected as the study area, and the Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model were comprehensively applied to set up three land use policies, predict land use changes in 2030, and calculate carbon stock changes. Meanwhile, the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm was used to analyze the degree of influence of different drivers on the supply of carbon stocks in different urbanization regions. Studies show that if the North China Plain prioritizes economic development, the area of farmland and forests will significantly decrease, leading to a substantial decline in carbon stocks. If ecological protection is the development focus, the reduction in farmland and forests will be less, and carbon stocks will remain relatively stable. If farmland protection is the development focus, the reduction in farmland will be minimal, but there will still be some impact on carbon stocks. The driving forces of carbon stock supply vary significantly across different regions. In underdeveloped regions, population density and vegetation cover have a greater impact on carbon stocks. In developing and urban–rural combined regions, vegetation cover and population migration have a greater impact on carbon stocks. In developed regions, the area of artificial land and gross domestic product (GDP) have a greater impact on carbon stocks. The study results provide scientific evidence for regional land use planning and policy formulation.