Modeling and Assessment of Landslide Susceptibility of Dianchi Lake Watershed in Yunnan Plateau

Abstract

The nine plateau lake watersheds in Yunnan are important ecological security barriers in the southwest of China. The prevention and control of landslides are important considerations in the management of these watersheds. Taking the Dianchi Lake watershed as a typical research area, a comprehensive modeling and assessment process of landslide susceptibility was put forward. The comprehensive process was based on the weight of evidence (WoE) method, and many statistical techniques were integrated, such as cross-validation, multi-quantile cumulative Student’s comprehensive weight statistics, independence testing, step-by-step modeling, ROC analysis, and ROC-based susceptibility zoning. In this paper, fourteen models with high accuracy and validity were established, and the AUC reached 0.83–0.87 and 0.85–0.88, respectively. In addition, according to the susceptibility zoning map compiled via the optimal model, 80% of landslides can be predicted in the very-high- and high-susceptibility areas, which only account for 19.58% of the study area. Finally, this paper puts forward strategies for geological disaster prevention and ecological restoration deployment.