Forecasting Fruit Export Damages and Enhancing Food Safety through Risk Management

Abstract

This study underscores serious issues in the South African fruit export sector, notably highlighting the persistent fruit damage after 2016 that could boost microbial growth, jeopardising food safety. To enhance the supply chain and safeguard food, identifying and strategising the types of fruit damage during distribution is critical. The data bring to light intricate and varied trends in damage claims across different fruit types and years, indicating a need to understand each fruit type’s specific vulnerabilities and adjust handling and farming techniques accordingly to minimise losses after harvest. The analysis reveals key insights into seasonal patterns in fruit damage claims, with notable increases especially in January and February, and clear fluctuations throughout the year. Utilising this knowledge, stakeholders can optimise operations and formulate guidelines tailored to high-risk seasons for fruit handling and transportation. Looking forward, both SARIMA and linear regression models predict an increasing trend in damage claims, highlighting a pressing need for improved planning and risk management strategies. This proactive approach will be crucial in mitigating future damage claims and enhancing food safety amid the growing challenges posed by climate changes and shifting global standards and regulations.