Sustainable Public Transportation in a Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous (VUCA) Age

Abstract

A well-functioning public transport system is one of the foundations of the Smart city concept and sustainable cities. The COVID period offers an excellent opportunity to examine the impact of different factors, because throughout this period society was faced with both health and governmental impacts that had different effects. Public transport use in the EU member states from the turn of the millennium until the beginning of the pandemic ranged from 17–18% to 27% of total journeys. The COVID-19 virus caused a 5–7% decrease in public transport use. The present study analyses the relationship between these effects and the number of paying passengers on public transport in Debrecen. Four hypotheses were put forward, i.e., that (1) the evolution of travel tickets, (2) general passes, (3) discounted passes and (4) replacement tickets were influenced by the evolution of the active COVID-19 case rate. The data were collected from the Debrecen Transport Company (DKV) for the period 1 January 2020–12 December 2021, and the Worldometers.info database. Statistical analyses were performed using an autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) model. We found that COVID’s active case numbers did not affect sales, but some of the government measures did have an effect. The results of this research can be used to inform future decisions to maintain and improve urban transport.