Hybrid Fuzzy AHP and Frequency Ratio Methods for Assessing Flood Susceptibility in Bayech Basin, Southwestern Tunisia

Abstract

Flash floods are a significant threat to arid and semi-arid regions, causing considerable loss of life and damage, including roads, bridges, check dams and dikes, reservoir filling, and mudslides in populated areas as well as agricultural fields. Flood risk is a complex process linked to numerous morphological, pedological, geological, anthropic, and climatic factors. In arid environments such as where Bayech basin is located in southwestern Tunisia, the hydrometric data are insufficient due to the absence of measuring points. Using the hybrid fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (F-AHP) and the frequency ratio statistical methods, this study aims to map flooding risks in an ungauged basin that is extremely prone to flooding. Data related to soil texture, slope, land use, altitude, rainfall, drainage density, and distance from the river were used in the risk analysis. The obtained flood risk maps from both F-AHP and FR models were validated on the basis of the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC), the Area Under the Curve (AUC), and the inventory map. Results revealed that areas of high and very high susceptibility to flooding are mainly located in the downstream part of the basin, where the town of Gafsa is located. Other upstream sites are also at risk. In this basin, slope is predominantly behind runoff accumulation, whereas soil type plays a major role in amplifying waterproofing and therefore overflow. The results derived from both methods clearly demonstrate a viable and efficient assessment in flood-prone areas. The F-AHP and FR methods have ROC values of 95% and 97%, respectively. Considering these results in the decision-making process, these outputs would enable the implementation of the necessary measures to mitigate flood risk impacts ensure sustainable development along with an effective management in Tunisian arid environments, for the well-being of local communities at risk.