Dynamic Evolutionary Analysis of the Impact of Outward Foreign Direct Investment on Green Innovation Heterogeneity—From the Perspective of Binary Innovation

Abstract

In the current era of increasingly frequent international exchanges and countries’ increasing emphasis on green development, exploring the complex relationship between outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) and green innovation has become an important research topic. Taking the binary innovation perspective as an entry point, this paper is devoted to exploring the heterogeneous impact and dynamic evolution of OFDI on green innovation since China’s accession to the WTO. The purpose is to form a more comprehensive and specific understanding of how OFDI affects green innovation. By sorting out the characteristics of economic development at the early stage of China’s WTO accession and implementation of the “going out” strategy, the period of counter-trend growth of OFDI after the financial crisis, and the “new normal” period of China’s transformation and development, this paper analyzes in detail the impact of OFDI on green innovation and green binary innovation in each stage. According to the study, the coefficients of the effects of OFDI on green innovation in the three stages are 0.214 (fully significant at the 1% level), −0.057 (insignificant), and 0.137 (significant at the 5% level), showing an overall effect of promoting–insignificant–promoting; In addition, the fact that the development orientation of OFDI is different at different stages leads to significant heterogeneity in its impact on green innovation and green binary innovation. The coefficients of OFDI on green exploratory innovation at the three stages are 0.064 (insignificant), −0.107 (significant at 10% level), and 0.099 (significant at 5% level), and the coefficients of OFDI on green exploitative innovation are 0.258 (fully significant at 1% level), −0.036 (insignificant) and 0.142 (significant at 5% level), respectively. The results reveal that OFDI on green binary innovation shifts from focusing on promoting green exploitative innovation to taking green binary innovation into account, and this heterogeneous performance effect matches the development characteristics of each stage. The results of the study show more clearly the association between OFDI and green innovation in China and provide new references for subsequent academic research and management practice.