Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of Three Rare Salamanders (Liua shihi, Pseudohynobius jinfo, and Tylototriton wenxianensis) in Chongqing, China, and Their Conservation Implications

Abstract

The Wushan Salamander (Liua shihi), Jinfo Salamander (Pseudohynobius jinfo), and Wenxian Knobby Salamander (Tylototriton wenxianensis) are rare national Class II protected wild animals in China. We performed MaxEnt modeling to predict and analyze the potential distribution and trends of these species in Chongqing under current and future climate conditions. Species distribution data were primarily obtained from field surveys, supplemented by museum collections and the existing literature. These efforts yielded 636 records, including 43 for P. jinfo, 23 for T. wenxianensis, and 570 for L. shihi. Duplicate records within the same 100 m × 100 m grid cell were removed using ENMTools, resulting in 10, 12, and 58 valid distribution points for P. jinfo, T. wenxianensis, and L. shihi, respectively. The optimization of feature class parameters (FC) and the regularization multiplier (RM) were applied using R package “ENMeval 2.0” to establish the optimal model with MaxEnt. The refined models were applied to simulate the suitable distribution areas for the three species. The results indicate that the current suitable habitat area for L. shihi accounted for 9.72% of the whole region of the Chongqing municipality. It is projected that, by 2050, the proportion of suitable habitat will increase to 12.54% but will decrease to 11.98% by 2070 and further decline to 8.80% by 2090. The current suitable habitat area for P. jinfo accounted for 1.08% of the whole region of the Chongqing municipality, which is expected to decrease to 0.31%% by 2050, 0.20% by 2070, and 0.07% by 2090. The current suitable habitat area for T. wenxianensis accounted for 0.81% of the whole region of the Chongqing municipality, which is anticipated to decrease to 0.37% by 2050, 0.21% by 2070, and 0.06% by 2090. Human disturbance, climate variables, and habitat characteristics are the primary factors influencing the distribution of three salamander species in Chongqing. The proximity to roads significantly impacts L. shihi, while climate conditions mainly affect P. jinfo, and the distance to water sources is crucial for T. wenxianensis. The following suggestions were made based on key variables identified for each species: (1) For L. shihi, it is imperative to minimize human disturbances and preserve areas without roads and the existing vegetation within nature reserves to ensure their continued existence. (2) For P. jinfo, the conservation of high-altitude habitats is of utmost importance, along with the reduction in disturbances caused by roads to maintain the species’ ecological niche. (3) For T. wenxianensis, the protection of aquatic habitats is crucial. Additionally, efforts to mitigate the impacts of road construction and enhance public awareness are essential for the preservation of this species and the connectivity of its habitats.