Increasing Spatial Mismatch of Cropland-Grain Production-Population in China over the Past Two Decades

Abstract

Identifying the spatiotemporal coupling characteristics of cropland-grain production-population is essential for the rational utilization of cropland and the evaluation of national and regional food security. Based on the grain production statistical data, GlobeLand30, and WorldPop data in the years 2000, 2010, and 2020, the spatiotemporal changes in China’s cropland area, grain production, and population and their coupling characteristics over the past two decades were detected at the grid level using the models of barycenter fitting and coupled dynamic analysis. The results showed that spatial change of cropland area in China was roughly characterized by the increase in the northwest and the decrease in the southeast; while grain production was characterized by an increase in the north and a decrease in the south, and population was roughly characterized by an increase in urban areas of the southeast coastal regions and a decrease in traditional agricultural areas. The barycenter of cropland area and that of grain production moved toward the northwest and the northeast, respectively, which mismatch the spatial pattern of hydro-thermal conditions of cropland resources in China and thus result in the increased risk of the national grain production system. Meanwhile, the barycenter of grain production and that of population continued to move in opposite directions overall, and the distances between their barycenters increased from 119.65 km in 2000 to 455.16 km in 2020, indicating that the phenomenon of ‘north-to-south grain diversion’ is intensifying. Our results highlight that the spatial mismatch of cropland-grain production-population in China has increased over the past two decades.