An Integrated Modelling Approach to Urban Growth and Land Use/Cover Change

Abstract

Long-term sustainable development in developing countries requires researching and projecting urban physical growth and land use/land cover change (LUCC). This research fills a gap in the literature by exploring the issues of modelling coupled LUCC and urban growth, their causes, and the role of policymakers. Tabriz metropolitan area (TMA), located at north-west Iran, was chosen as a case study to design an integrated framework using four well-established methods: cellular automata (CA), Markov chains (MC), logistic regression (LR), and stepwise weight assessment ratio analysis (SWARA). Northern, north-west, and central TMA were affected the worst by urbanisation and the loss of cultivated and grassland between 1990 and 2020. The accessibility of arterial roadways and proximity to major cities influenced these changes. Three scenarios characterise LUCC dynamics: the uncontrolled growth scenario (UGS) and the historical trend growth scenario (HTGS) foresee significant loss of cultivated land and continued urban expansion above the long-term average in 2050, while the environmental protection growth scenario (EPGS) promotes sustainable development and compact urbanisation. The methods used in this research may be used to various contexts to examine the temporal and spatial dynamics of LUCC and urban growth.