Greenhouse Gas Emissions Growth in Europe: A Comparative Analysis of Determinants

Abstract

Understanding the underlying reasons for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions trends in different countries is fundamental for climate change mitigation. This paper identifies the main determinants that affect GHG emissions growth and assesses their impact and differences among countries in Europe. Previous studies have produced inconclusive results and presented several limitations, such as the lack of quality of the data used, the reduced identification of determinants and the use of methods that did not enable hypothesis testing. Conversely, this research identifies an extended list of determinants of GHG emissions, performs an in-depth statistical analysis and contrasts the significance of determinants using panel data and multiple linear regression models for the period 1990–2017 for the main Eurozone countries. The study found that GDP and final energy intensity are the main drivers for the reduction of GHG emissions in Europe. Furthermore, energy prices are not significant and heterogeneous results are found for the renewable energy, fuel mix and carbon intensity determinants, pointing to a different behavior at the country level. The uneven impact of the main determinants of GHG emission growth suggest that a differentiated application of European policies at country level will enhance the efficiency of mitigation efforts in Europe.