Research on Improvement of the Combination Method for Conflicting Evidence Based on Historical Data

Abstract

In a multi-sensor system, due to the difference of performance of sensors and the environment in which the sensor collects evidence, evidence collected will be highly conflicting, which leads to the failure of D-S evidence theory. The current research on combination methods of conflicting evidence focuses on eliminating the problem of "Zadeh paradox" brought by conflicting evidence, but do not distinguish the evidence from different sources effectively. In this paper, the credibility of each piece of evidence to be combined is weighted based on historical data, and the modified evidence is obtained by weighted average. Then the final result is obtained by combining the modified evidence using D-S evidence theory, and the improved decision rule is used for the final decision. After the decision, the system updates and stores the historical data based on actual results. The improved decision rule can solve the problem that the system cannot make a decision when there are two or more propositions corresponding to the maximum support in the final combination result. This method satisfies commutative law and associative law, so it has the symmetry that can meet the needs of the combination of time-domain evidence. Numerical examples show that the combination method of conflict evidence based on historical data can not only solve the problem of “Zadeh paradox”, but also obtain more reasonable results.