Optimal Sizing of Cascade Hydropower and Distributed Photovoltaic Included Virtual Power Plant Considering Investments and Complementary Benefits in Electricity Markets

Abstract

Due to an imminent fossil energy crisis and environmental pollution, renewable energy, such as photovoltaics, has been vigorously developing. However, the output of photovoltaic energy has strong volatility and intermittency. Thus, the photovoltaic generation system cannot constantly meet the load demand. To address this problem, a virtual power plant with hydro-photovoltaic-thermal generation is proposed in this paper. This virtual power plant utilizes the complementary characteristics of the output of the power sources to ensure a smooth and stable total output curve, and the power supply quality of the virtual power plant is improved. Further, the nonlinear operating cost model of the virtual power plant, with output changing over time, is established on the weighted output of hydro, photovoltaic, and thermal power; then, the corresponding marginal cost model of the virtual power plant is obtained. In the electricity market, three typical mid- to long-term electricity decomposition methods based on average, tracking load and spot price are constructed, and the spot price is predicted by the auto regressive moving average model (ARIMA) model, while the relationship between the spot price and the marginal cost of the virtual power plant is obtained; the marginal cost could also be adjusted based on the ARIMA model. Based on above factors, the sizing model of the virtual power plant is established, considering investment and complementary benefits. Finally, a case study is undertaken, where the sizing scheme for the increasing local load in the typical scenarios of the planning year and the corresponding annual rate of return are obtained. Sensitivity analysis of the influence for the above factors on the sizing of the virtual power plant is carried out. The optimal ratio of mid- to long-term electricity and its decomposition methods, as well as the capacity of the virtual power plant and the sizing ratio of hydropower, photovoltaic, and thermal power are obtained.