Financial Comparison of Continuous-Cover Forestry, Rotational Forest Management and Permanent Carbon Forest Regimes for Redwood within New Zealand

Abstract

Continuous-cover forestry (CCF), which maintains a relatively intact forest cover through selective harvesting, has emerged over the last few decades as a popular alternative to rotational forest management (RFM). Coast redwood, which is native to the western United States, grows rapidly in New Zealand and is well suited to CCF as it has high shade tolerance, an ability to coppice from the cut stem, and resistance to pests, diseases, wind and fire. A forest estate model was used to compare the carbon sequestration, timber production and profitability of redwood CCF, RFM and permanent carbon forestry (PCF) regimes at a regional level within New Zealand. Through linear programming, this model optimised carbon accumulation and harvesting decisions across a large forest to meet a series of constraints associated with each regime. All three regimes represented good investment decisions, but CCF had the highest soil expectation value (SEV) within most North Island regions while PCF had a slightly higher SEV within the South Island regions. Under the transitional CCF (CCFt), revenue from carbon initially increased before levelling out at 40 years, after which time a sustainable harvest of high-value timber commenced in perpetuity without additional revenue from carbon. The CCFt regime transitioned to a steady-state condition, with a uniform age class distribution from year 150 onwards (CCFs), after which time a very high SEV was attained that exceeded that of CCFt by four-fold in the North Island (NZD 136,126/ha vs. NZD 34,430/ha) and seven-fold (NZD 44,714 vs. NZD 6267/ha) in the South Island. This study highlights the profitability of managing redwood under CCF and how initial carbon revenue can be used to finance the transition of the forest to a steady-state condition that produces a stream of valuable timber with a very high rate of return.