Cluster-Based Approach to Estimate Demand in the Polish Power System Using Commercial Customers’ Data-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Cluster-Based Approach to Estimate Demand in the Polish Power System Using Commercial Customers’ Data

Published:2023-12-14 Issue:24 Volume:16 Page:8070
ISSN:1996-1073
Container-title:Energies
language:en
Short-container-title:Energies

Author:

Ząbkowski Tomasz¹,Gajowniczek Krzysztof¹^ORCID,Matejko Grzegorz²^ORCID,Brożyna Jacek³^ORCID,Mentel Grzegorz³⁴^ORCID,Charytanowicz Małgorzata⁵,Jarnicka Jolanta⁵,Olwert Anna⁵,Radziszewska Weronika⁵^ORCID,Verstraete Jörg⁶^ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Institute of Information Technology, Warsaw University of Life Sciences-SGGW, Nowoursynowska 159, 02-787 Warsaw, Poland

2. Polskie Towarzystwo Cyfrowe, Krakowskie Przedmieście 57/4, 20-076 Lublin, Poland

3. Department of Quantitative Methods, The Faculty of Management, Rzeszow University of Technology, Aleja Powstańców Warszawy 10/S, 35-959 Rzeszow, Poland

4. INTI International University, Persiaran Perdana BBN, Putra Nilai, Nilai 71800, Malaysia

5. Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Newelska 6, 01-447 Warsaw, Poland

6. Institute of Fluid-Flow Machinery, Polish Academy of Sciences, Fiszera 14, 80-231 Gdańsk, Poland

Abstract

This paper presents an approach to estimate demand in the Polish Power System (PPS) using the historical electricity usage of 27 thousand commercial customers, observed between 2016 and 2020. The customer data were clustered and samples as well as features were created to build neural network models. The goal of this research is to analyze if the clustering of customers can help to explain demand in the PPS. Additionally, considering that the datasets available for commercial customers are typically much smaller, it was analyzed what a minimal sample size drawn from the clusters would have to be in order to accurately estimate demand in the PPS. The evaluation and experiments were conducted for each year separately; the results proved that, considering adjusted R2 and mean absolute percentage error, our clustering-based method can deliver a high accuracy in the load estimation.

Funder

National Centre for Research and Development, Poland

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Energy (miscellaneous),Energy Engineering and Power Technology,Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment,Electrical and Electronic Engineering,Control and Optimization,Engineering (miscellaneous),Building and Construction

Link

https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/24/8070/pdf

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