Analysis of the Temporal Evolution of Climate Variables Such as Air Temperature and Precipitation at a Local Level: Impacts on the Definition of Strategies for Adaptation to Climate Change

Abstract

Climate change is a global phenomenon that can affect neighbouring territories and the communities residing there in different ways. This fact, which is associated with the specificities of each of the territories, leads to the need to implement adaptive measures to address the new reality imposed by climate change and to create more resilient territories and communities capable of facing this new paradigm. The more these measures are adjusted to the specificities of the territories and their communities, the more efficient they will be. Thus, it is essential to have a thorough understanding of the evolution of the climate on the local scale and the real needs of the resident populations. To identify these needs, a survey was conducted, and it was found that the dominant opinion of all respondents, comprising citizens residing in Portugal, was that climate change can affect geographically close territories in different ways. In the present work, the municipality of Guimarães, located in the north of Portugal, was used as a case study, where a comparative analysis was carried out to assess the period between the current climate, characterized by the period of 1971–2021, and the climate of 100 years ago, characterized by the decade of 1896–1905, to determine trends for the variables of air temperature and precipitation. It was found that the temperature in the winter months increased, with less uniformity in the distribution of precipitation throughout the year. These differences in the air temperature and precipitation, as variables, lead to the need to plan adaptive measures that can be implemented so that the territory and its communities become more resilient to climate change.