Resilience Analysis of Maritime Silk Road Shipping Network Structure under Disruption Simulation

Abstract

As an important hub in the maritime transportation system, ports are vulnerable to events such as terrorist attacks, security accidents and bad weather. The failure of port nodes to function effectively affects the connectivity and efficiency of the shipping network and impedes trade between countries. In view of this, in this paper, we constructed the Maritime Silk Road shipping network based on route data and used transmissibility and diversity to represent the resilience of the network and nodes. Then, we analyzed the variation characteristics of resilience using disruption simulation and identified 9 dominant nodes and 15 vulnerable nodes that could help to accurately determine the factors that affect the resilience of the MSR shipping network structure. The results show that the Maritime Silk Road shipping network structure is vulnerable, and the failure of ports to function has different effects on network transmissibility and diversity. In terms of node transmissibility and diversity, there are differences in the resistance of port nodes to interventions. In addition, the failure of dominant ports to function and the emergence of vulnerable ports are significant factors that weaken the resilience of the network structure. When dominant ports are interrupted, this greatly affects the resilience of the network structure. It is necessary to reduce the possibilities of the failure of dominant ports. Vulnerable ports are weaknesses in the resilience of the network structure, which weaken the ability of the network to function. The centrality of these ports should be strengthened, and their relation to regional and trans-regional links should be enriched. The research results provide a scientific basis for ensuring the structural resilience of the Maritime Silk Road shipping network.