Epidemiology and Cost of Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) Eradication in Small Ruminants in the United Arab Emirates—Disease Spread and Control Strategies Simulations

Abstract

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an important infectious viral disease of domestic small ruminants that threatens the food security and sustainable livelihood of farmers across Middle East, Africa, and Asia. The objective of this research is to analyze the disease’s spread and its impacts on direct government costs through conducting three simulations of different control strategies to reduce and quickly eradicate PPR from the United Arab Emirates in the near future. A Modified Animal Disease Spread Model was developed in this study to suit the conditions of the United Arab Emirates. The initial scenario represents when mass vaccination is ceased, and moderate movement restrictions are applied. The second scenario is based on mass vaccination and stamping out the disease, whereas the third simulation scenario assumes mass and ring vaccination when needed, very strict movement control, and stamping out. This study found that the third scenario is the most effective in controlling and eradicating PPR from the UAE. The outbreak duration in days was reduced by 57% and the number of infected animals by 77% when compared to the other scenarios. These results are valuable to the country’s animal health decision-makers and the government’s efforts to report to the World Animal Health Organization (OIE) regarding the progress made towards declaration of the disease’s eradication. They are also useful to other concerned entities in other Middle Eastern, North African, and Asian countries where the disease is spreading.