An Unusual Cold February 2019 in Saskatchewan—A Case Study Using NCEP Reanalysis Datasets

Abstract

In February 2019, central Canada, and especially the province of Saskatchewan, experienced extreme cold weather. It was the coldest February in 82 years and the second coldest in 115 years. In this study, we examine National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Reanalysis 1 data to understand the atmospheric processes leading to this cold snap. A detailed investigation of surface air temperature, sea level pressure, surface fluxes, and winds revealed a linkage between the North Pacific storm track and the February cold snap. A shift in the jet stream pattern triggered by the storm activity over the North Pacific caused a high-pressure blocking pattern, which resulted in unusual cold temperatures in Saskatchewan in February. This study demonstrates the potential for extreme cold in a warming climate; weather records in Saskatchewan show an increase in minimum winter temperature by 4–5 °C.