Research on the Evaluation and Spatial–Temporal Evolution of Safe and Resilient Cities Based on Catastrophe Theory—A Case Study of Ten Regions in Western China

Abstract

In today’s highly complex world, urban security has become a focus of attention for people in various positions due to its enormous uncertainty. As an essential path towards urban safety, resilient development can effectively provide emergency management capability for cities when they are exposed to unknown risks. In this study, an evaluation-index system for urban-safety resilience was constructed from the perspective of sustainable urban development. The urban-safety-resilience evaluation model was established with the help of catastrophe theory to study and analyze urban-safety resilience. The corresponding spatial–temporal-evolution analysis used the geographic information system (GIS) and Moran index to evaluate the urban-security resilience of 10 regions in western China. Finally, it was concluded that (1) the urban-safety resilience of most regions in western China showed an increasing trend over time in 2017, 2019, and 2021; (2) the urban-safety resilience of Chongqing, Sichuan, and Shaanxi provinces is at a relatively high level compared to the western region overall; and (3) regions such as Ningxia and Gansu are disaster-prone, and urban infrastructure conditions are relatively backward. Therefore, urban planning and governance should be flexibly transformed to explore and apply appropriate urban-safety-resilience models, with sustainable development as the cornerstone.