A Nomogram for Predicting Non-Response to Surgery One Year after Elective Total Hip Replacement

Abstract

Background: Total hip replacement (THR) is a common and cost-effective procedure for end-stage osteoarthritis, but inappropriate utilization may be devaluing its true impact. The purpose of this study was to develop and test the internal validity of a prognostic algorithm for predicting the probability of non-response to THR surgery at 1 year. Methods: Analysis of outcome data extracted from an institutional registry of individuals (N = 2177) following elective THR performed between January 2012 and December 2019. OMERACT-OARSI responder criteria were applied to Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index (WOMAC) pain and function scores at pre- and 1 year post-THR, to determine non-response to surgery. Independent prognostic correlates of post-operative non-response observed in adjusted modelling were then used to develop a nomogram. Results: A total of 194 (8.9%) cases were deemed non-responders to THR. The degree of contribution (OR, 95% CI) of each explanatory factor to non-response on the nomogram was, morbid obesity (1.88, 1.16, 3.05), Kellgren–Lawrence grade <4 (1.89, 1.39, 2.56), WOMAC Global rating per 10 units (0.86, 0.79, 0.94) and the following co-morbidities: cerebrovascular disease (2.39, 1.33, 4.30), chronic pulmonary disease (1.64; 1.00, 2.71), connective tissue disease (1.99, 1.17, 3.39), diabetes (1.86, 1.26, 2.75) and liver disease (2.28, 0.99, 5.27). The concordance index for the nomogram was 0.70. Conclusion: We have developed a prognostic nomogram to calculate the probability of non-response to THR surgery. In doing so, we determined that both the probability of and predictive prognostic factors for non-response to THR differed from a previously developed nomogram for total knee replacement (TKR), confirming the benefit of designing decision support tools that are both condition and surgery site specific. Future external validation of the nomogram is required to confirm its generalisability.