Time Series Prediction of Reservoir Bank Slope Deformation Based on Informer and InSAR: A Case Study of Dawanzi Landslide in the Baihetan Reservoir Area, China

Abstract

Reservoir impoundment significantly impacts the hydrogeological conditions of reservoir bank slopes, and bank slope deformation or destruction occurs frequently under cyclic impoundment conditions. Ground deformation prediction is crucial to the early warning system for slow-moving landslides. Deep learning methods have developed rapidly in recent years, but only a few studies are on combining deep learning and landslide warning. This paper proposes a slow-moving landslide displacement prediction method based on the Informer deep learning model. Firstly, the Sentinel-1 (S1) data are processed to obtain the cumulative displacement time-series image of the bank slope by the Small-BAseline Subset Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (SBAS-InSAR) method. Then, combining data on rainfall, humidity, and horizontal and vertical distances of pixel points from the water table line, this study created a dataset with landslide displacement as the target feature. After that, this paper improves the Informer model to make it applicable to our dataset. This study chose the Dawanzi landslide in the Baihetan reservoir area, China, for validation. After training with 50-time series deformation data points, the model can predict the displacement results of 12-time series deformation data points using 12-time series multi-feature data, and compared with the monitoring values, its Mean Square Error (MSE) was 11.614. The results show that the multivariate dataset is better than the deformation univariate data in predicting the displacement in the large deformation zone of bank slopes, and our model has better complexity and prediction performance than other deep learning models. The prediction results show that among zones I–IV, where the Dawanzi Tunnel is located, significant deformation with the maximum deformation rate detected exceeding –100mm/year occurs in Zones I and III. In these two zones, the initiation of deformation relates to the drop in water level after water storage, with the deformation rate of Zone III exhibiting a stronger correlation with the change in water level. It is expected that deformation in Zone III will either remain slow or stop, while deformation in Zone I will continue at the same or a decreased rate. Our proposed method for slow-moving landslide displacement forecasting offers fast, intuitive, and economically feasible advantages. It can provide a feasible research idea for future deep learning and landslide warning research.