Renewable Energy and Governance Resilience in the Gulf

Abstract

The six Gulf monarchies—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates (UAE)—are more politically stable than their peers in the Middle East and North Africa. Explanations for governance resilience range from repression to neopatrimonial and instrumental legitimacy, hydrocarbon-based rentierism, and permissive regional and international environments. This paper considers, in view of the proliferation and uptake of renewable energy in the Gulf, how governance resilience may be affected as a result of changes in state-society relations during the energy transition away from a fossil-fuel-based energy system. It offers a qualitative analysis of the impact of renewable energy deployment in the Gulf, supported by a rich array of secondary literature and data. It also offers a deep, if brief, dive to highlight intra-regional nuances. The authors conclude that in the short term, renewable energy deployment has a very modest impact given its limited share of power generation. In the longer term, even assuming that stated ambitions for renewable energy are fulfilled, no negative impact on monarchial resilience is expected thanks to gains in legitimacy and revenue streams, as well as purposeful alignment with an external environment supportive of renewable power in developing countries.